Another mild winter: What to expect in Maryland, Delaware and Virginia

As a mega-snowstorm bears down on the Northeast this week, most of Delmarva will escape with just rain. 

For the rest of the winter, the Eastern Shore might see more of the same.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts (with moderate confidence) a warmer-than-average winter for Delmarva, though it is unclear what exactly will be in store regarding rain and snow.

Temperatures are slightly probable to trend warmer along much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from December through February, according to NOAA's maps. But the regions each have equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation levels this winter, making an accurate prediction of rain and snow hard to pin down.

The exception is the Eastern Shore of Virginia: Northampton and Accomack counties edge into the map's region indicating a prevailingly dry winter, though without much confidence. 

These weather patterns will be influenced by La Niña, a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA.

“With La Niña well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement.

A mild winter 2020-2021 would be Delmarva's second in a row.

Last year, NOAA predicted above-normal temperatures and normal amounts of precipitation on Delmarva for December, January and February, which turned out to be right.

More:Delaware saw less than inch of snow this winter, nearly breaking state record. Here's why

In Wilmington, the average temperature for winter 2019-2020 was about 39 degrees, 5 degrees above normal. That tied with the winters of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 as the fourth warmest on record.

Nationally, it was much the same story: Across the contiguous U.S., winter 2019-2020 was the sixth-warmest winter since reliable recordkeeping began in 1895. 

An analysis of winter temperatures indicates that 98% of 242 cities across the country had an increase in average winter temperatures since 1970, according to Climate Central, an independent climate change research organization.

For example, Salisbury experienced an increase of almost 3 degrees Fahrenheit on average, resulting in nine more warmer-than-normal days of winter compared to 50 years ago, Climate Central calculated.

"There is no question that it still gets cold in a warming climate — just this past October, multiple locations across the Northern U.S. broke cold and snow records — but the winter season is less cold than it used to be a half-century ago," Climate Central states on its website.